An Ecosystem Model of Technology Evolution
نویسندگان
چکیده
We propose a new conceptual model for understanding technological evolution that identifies the impact of social (e.g., market, economic, and political forces) and technological forces. We build on theories from technological forecasting, technology evolution, and innovation research to develop the concept of a technology ecosystem. By considering the influence of social forces, technical forces, and the interplay between the two we demonstrate that layers of technology naturally arise. These technology layers are identified as components, products and applications, and support and infrastructure. We postulate that the evolution of component technologies is driven primarily by technical forces, while product and application evolution is driven by both social and technical forces, and the evolution of support and infrastructure is driven primarily by social forces. We also classify specific types of technology evolution processes by identifying the paths of influence that help shape the nature of technological innovations. The model provides insights for technology development and forecasting, which is demonstrated through mini-cases on the digital music and data storage industries. _____________________________________________________________________________________
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